Contributors:
Colby McFadden
Justin Singletary
Patrick Morehead
April, 2025
As we spring further into 2025, the financial markets are serving up more plot twists than a mid-day soap opera, doubling down on the paradoxes we flagged back in January.
The Federal Reserve’s rate cuts—supposedly the economy’s caffeine shot—are getting a big “LOL” from Treasury yields, which have remained in our “Goldilocks” range, and in accordance with one of our 2025 investing themes. Market pundits who swore they’d cracked the code at New Year’s are now quietly eating their words (and maybe their hats).
Meanwhile, in the stock market. Post-election vibes have shifted from the Trump bump to the Trump slump, as we end the quarter with equity markets down double digits. Raising the question. Is this a buying opportunity or the start of a long-awaited Bear Market?
Over in commodity land, it’s a split-screen comedy: energy being this year’s top sector performer is flexing like it’s ready to hit the gym with RFK Jr, while gold’s spiking higher as if it knows something we don’t. Seriously, if the economy’s so “stable,” why’s gold acting like it’s prepping for the apocalypse?
This tangled mess of trends is basically screaming one thing at investors: your grandpa’s investing playbook is toast. Diversification is not enough.
The wild dance between monetary policy, asset prices, and whatever’s cooking globally is begging for a sharper, savvier approach to investing.
In this edition of Market Minutes From The Boardroom, we’re diving into the chaos while decoding the market’s mood swings, and sharing some snappy investment insights for investors interested in Stocks, Gold, Real Estate, and Energy.
Before we get too deep, we would like to invite you to watch our most recent Weekly Market Report on YouTube. It discusses much of what we will write about in this missive.
Please subscribe to our channel so you get timely notifications each time we release a new weekly report. You can watch it here:
In January, about the time the New Year’s Eve hang over was wearing off, the Ten-Year Treasury approached 4.76% and we penned about the paradox we were watching in rates and mentioned:
Goldilocks, like interest rates, loves that “just right” spot—but she might be in hot water now.
The Federal Reserve slashed rates by a full percentage since September 2024, but the 10-year Treasury yield bizarrely climbed by the same amount. Has Goldilocks left rate-sensitive investors with a portfolio full of hot potatoes?
Since then, rates have subsided with the Ten-Year Treasury slipping down to 4.25% and keeping one of our 2025 investing themes – that rates would remain between 4% and 5% making rate sensitive investment sectors like Traded Reit’s and Utilities accretive to a portfolio – alive and well. Year to date, both Traded Reit’s and Utilities have been among the top 5 stock market sector performers.
Moving forward, in the near term, the line in the sand on the upside is 4.5%, and on the downside is 4.25%. If rates were to decisively trade over 4.5%, we would start to get concerned that our interest rate investment thesis could be misaligned. If that were to occur, we would then consider adjusting some of the rate sensitive investments we have within our models. The Ten-Year Yield trading below 4.25%, would add confidence to our investment thesis, and we would most likely not need to do any adjustments to our current holdings. Since a picture is worth a thousand words, here is a visual with additional notes so you can follow along at home.
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In January, we wrote:
With the 2024 election behind us, there’s a wave of optimism sweeping across the U.S., fueled by promises of economic growth policies. While many believe 2025 could be an unbeatable year for U.S. equities, seasoned investors remember Warren Buffett’s timeless advice: “Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful.” This wisdom suggests a need for caution amidst the current market euphoria.
Which on hindsight, was quite timely.
Since then, equity market volatility has spiked higher with a market correction unfolding as I write, with market indexes SP500 and Nasdaq down 10% or more from the start of the year. Led by even larger declines in the tech sector, and notably the Mag 7 stocks.
However, not all hope is lost as sectors like Energy, Consumer Staples, Utilities and Metals/Miners are positive for the year. Highlighting that diversification isn’t enough in this market. Diversification with an emphasis on non-correlation (what we call Quivercation) is what is needed in this environment.
Moving forward, it appears the new question to ask is whether this market decline is a buying opportunity, created by a simple sector rotation or something more dubious, like the start of an extended Bear market?
At the current moment, the decline has unfolded like a typical sector rotation correction where the overvalued sectors around Tech sold off, and the undervalued sectors, such as Energy and Utilities, attracted capital. However, the next week or two will help us determine whether this decline in markets is truly just a sector rotation correction, or something more concerning. Here is what we are watching for:
Want to see what Dividend Investments we are buying, selling or hedging?
Grandpa would be proud. His favorite shiny metal is the lead horse for investment returns in 2025. Go get-em Gramps!
There isn’t much to say about the performance of metals in 2025 other than, “HELL YEAH MOFO!!”
Going forward, the most important next step in metals is to know when to sell. Why? Well, if the equity market decline turns from correction to bear market, even metals will get sold off as investors will look to take profits from their winners as overall confidence erodes. Especially if said investors are getting margin calls on their losers. With that said, here is what we are watching for, and preparing to do, within our metals and miners holdings:
As of the Spring of 2025, outside of metals, energy has been the stock markets best performer. Greatly needed after being one of the markets mediocre performers in 2024. In January, we shared with you this chart of oil and the energy sector:
Since then, oil and energy did break out higher, has now retested the breakout, and appears to be back on the move to the upside. The following chart will provide more insight on what we are watching for next:
The bottom line, our 2025 investing themes – rates remaining between 4-5%, oil and gold prices moving higher along with equity markets correcting lower – led by sell-offs in tech, and strength in value sectors – are unfolding quite nicely.
Moving forward, we will continue to monitor markets and provide you with valuable insights in our weekly market reports on YouTube. Please subscribe to, and like, our YouTube channel @quiverfinancial5902. Until next time, take care and enjoy the start of Spring.
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