Contributors:
Colby McFadden
Justin Singletary
Patrick Morehead
July, 2025
Welcome back to *Market Minutes From The Boardroom*!
Our April 2025 newsletter highlighted a turbulent market, with Treasury yields testing the upper bounds of our “Goldilocks” range, raising alarms for interest-rate-sensitive investments. Equities stumbled into a “Trump slump,” sparking debate: was the April crash a buying opportunity or the onset of a bear market driven by inflation and tariff policies? Meanwhile, metals like gold and silver shone brightly, while energy and oil traded sideways with sharp volatility amid shifting sentiment. Since then, geopolitical tensions, trade policy shifts, and fresh economic data have woven new threads into the financial narrative. Below, we update you on the macro outlook for key asset classes impacting your net worth—stocks, metals (gold and silver), interest rates, and energy—with a spotlight on the U.S. dollar and how the “Genius Act” could reshape America’s control over its interest rates and currency strength. Let’s dive in!
In April 2025, we highlighted a double-digit decline in equities, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down over 10% year-to-date, led by tech sector sell-offs. We posed the question: buying opportunity or bear market? Since then, markets have staged an impressive recovery, supported by resilient earnings and de-escalating trade concerns, though volatility remains. Since a picture can tell a thousand words I offer this chart and accompanying notes for our current view on equity markets.
This year’s market actions aligns with our “Quivercation” strategy, emphasizing non-correlated sectors. By taking a barbell approach to our allocation with energy, utilities, and consumer staples serving as core holdings while they maintain their stronger annual relative strength and opportunistically buying into technology leaders and new trends due to deregulation taking advantage of the dips while Mag 7 tech has transitioned from a leader to a sideways churn.
Our macro view is that broader equity markets are most likely in the process of trading in a range from SP500 6200 on the high end and 5600 on the low end until there is more clarity on trade policy, The Big Beautiful Bill, inflation and geopolitical concerns.
Markets have remained resilient which is encouraging, however these are the types of markets that can surprise you in the flash of a light so we encourage maintaining higher levels of cash and hedges while still deploying capital into the sectors mentioned before. Stay tuned to our YouTube channel @quiverfinancial5902 for weekly updates.
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Gold was “spiking higher” in April 2025, acting as a hedge against global uncertainty. Our “Metals and Miners” section celebrated its year-to-date surge, and the rally has continued with some pauses, driven by trade wars, Middle East tensions, and central bank demand. As you can see from the chart below, metals markets look to be poised for their next move:
In the near term, the charts and fundamentals lead me to believe that Metals markets appear to be poised for another push which may end up being a move that puts the recent rally into a realm that profit taking may be called for. As I look at the potential for dollar strength and the emergence of new assets like stable coins that could soak up dollar and treasury demand, I wouldn’t be too surprised to see the back half of 2025 and first part of 2026 accompanied by a stronger dollar and weaker metals prices. We shall see, and as always, we will keep you up to date on our view and how we are adjusting our allocations accordingly.
Is the U.S. dollar doomed? In this video, we delve into the rumors of the dollar’s demise, examining the real risks and timelines for any potential collapse. Worried about economic turmoil or a worthless dollar? We’ll put your mind at ease with clear, actionable insights.
Want to see what Dividend Investments we are buying, selling or hedging?
We flagged traded REITs as potential performers” in January 2025, benefiting from the “Goldilocks” Treasury yield range (4%-5%). Since then, higher yields and tariff fears have tempered gains, but select REITs and regional markets show resilience.
As you can see in the chart below, specialized REIT’s like EPR properties have performed well where as a broader index like IYR or mortgage REIT’s like Annaly or AGNC has lost their momentum since the Tariff Tantrum in April.
When it comes to rates, particularly the 10yr U.S. Treasury Yield, the dog that wags the tail of rate sensitive investments, we offer this view:
REITs remain somewhat attractive. However, because of our concerns that the current appearance of yields in the charts look higher for longer we have reduced our exposure until we have more clarity as to the direction of inflation and yields.
The Energy sector went from being the stock market’s top sector performer as of April 1 2025, to the worst performer by April 30th and is now back to being in the top 5 sector performance for the year, what a wild ride. Since, prices have been volatile, with Middle East tensions. Here is what we are watching in Oil and the Energy Sector.
Energy has been one of the ways we have searched for defensive dividends while also providing some geo-political insurance. While the past 2 years, this has resulted in sideways performance from the sector we are starting to see signs both technically and fundamentally that energy related investments including uranium and other alternatives could be decent income and growth providers to portfolios the remaining of 2025 and entering 2026. Stay up to date by watching our weekly market reports on YouTube by subscribing using this link @quiverfinancial5902.
I know from the calls I receive, that there is a lot of noise and propaganda running amuck within certain circles of media and subscription sales outlets discussing the demise of the dollar and the variety of dubious outcomes that could occur as a result. So, I wanted to provide a slightly contrarian view of the dollar related to other major currencies in the world over the past five years. As you can see in the chart, the dollar has been on a decline for many months and has approached an area in the charts that is traditionally viewed as potential support that may lead to a short to intermediate term bounce in the price of the dollar related to other foreign currencies. Interestingly, this juncture of support is also coinciding with the Genius Act which if passed could become an important support to the U.S. Dollar and U.S. Treasury Yields.
I highly recommend reading our most recent blog article on The Genius Act to learn more.
Our April 2025 themes—Goldilocks yields (4%-5%), rising gold and oil, and equity corrections with value sector strength—have largely held, though energy’s pullback and equity rebounds tweak the narrative. The 10-year Treasury yield hit ~4.5% in June 2025, testing our upside threshold, prompting caution on rate-sensitive REITs and utilities. Gold’s safe-haven rally and energy’s volatility underscore the need for “Quivercation”—diversification with non-correlated assets.
Moving forward, we’ll keep decoding the market’s mood swings via our Weekly Market Reports @quiverfinancial5902. Subscribe and like for timely insights! Schedule a free Financial Readiness Consultation at www.quiverfinancial.com to align your portfolio with these shifts.
Thank you for trusting Quiver Financial. Let’s navigate this wild market together!
Best regards,
The Quiver Financial Team
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